Utility Dive•16 days ago
EIA cuts 2026 power generation forecast by more than a percentage point
Key Takeaway
The EIA's reduced 2026 generation forecast, driven by current large load growth, suggests a potentially tighter market for new generation development due to a re-evaluation of future supply needs.
AI Summary
- •The EIA has reduced its 2026 power generation forecast by over a percentage point.
- •This downward revision is attributed to the actual large load electricity demand that has already come online, particularly in Texas.
- •For developers, this signals a potential slowdown in the projected need for new generation capacity, which could impact future project viability and PPA pricing.
- •For large loads, while their demand is a key driver, the forecast cut implies the grid's existing or planned capacity might be absorbing this demand more efficiently than EIA previously thought, or that future generation growth will be slower.
Topics
capacity-marketdatacenterercot
Article Content
The Energy Information Administration revised down its projection based on how much large load electricity demand has come online so far this year, particularly in Texas, “and its implications for near-term growth.”